Khanty-Mansiysk Round 2 Update

After several exciting games that appeared to be headed for decisive results petered out into draws, only Dominguez ended up scoring a full point today. Since Dominguez is practically (though not technically) eliminated from contention for a top two finish in the final Grand Prix standings this meant it was a relatively quite day in our model’s predicted Grand Prix results. With his loss, Jakovenko did lose his gains from yesterday, falling squarely back into the “other contenders” category. Here’s a quick overview of our updated projections (based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining rounds). First the projected results for this event on its own:

Player K-M EV Odds of Clear 1st (Pre-Event Odds)
SHARED FIRST 31% 28%
 Hikaru Nakamura (USA) 98 13% 14%
 Fabiano Caruana (ITA) 98 13% 17%
 Alexander Grischuk (RUS) 89 9% 11%
 Evgeny Tomashevsky (RUS) 87 9% 3%
 Leinier Dominguez (CUB) 84 7% 2%
 Sergey Karjakin (RUS) 75 5% 5%
 Dmitry Jakovenko (RUS) 69 3% 3%
 Boris Gelfand (ISR) 64 3% 3%
 Peter Svidler (RUS) 63 3% 2%
 Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (FRA) 57 2% 3%
 Anish Giri (NED) 57 2% 7%
 Baadur Jobava (GEO) 29 0% 1%

Next is our updated projections of the final Grand Prix standings, and most importantly each player’s odds of finishing in the top two of those standings (and earning a berth in the 2016 Candidates Tournament).

Player Live Rating Baku Tashkent Tbilisi Khanty-Mansiysk CURRENT TOTAL ODDS (PRE K-M) ODDS (CURRENT)
 Evgeny Tomashevsky (RUS) 2753.7 82 170 x 252 52% 68%
 Fabiano Caruana (ITA) 2801.0 155 75 x 230 71% 62%
 Hikaru Nakamura (USA) 2797.9 82 125 x 207 49% 46%
 Dmitry Jakovenko (RUS) 2746.8 30 140 x 170 9% 8%
 Boris Gelfand (ISR) 2744.9 155 15 x 170 7% 7%
 Sergey Karjakin (RUS) 2753.9 82 75 x 157 8% 7%
 Alexander Grischuk (RUS) 2783.6 82 40 x 122 3% 2%
 Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (FRA) 2741.8 75 40 x 115 1% 0.3%
 Anish Giri (NED) 2770.2 40 75 x 115 1% 0.3%
 Peter Svidler (RUS) 2737.8 82 20 x 102 0.1% 0.2%
 Baadur Jobava (GEO) 2695.4 75 40 x 115 0.2% 0.03%
 Leinier Dominguez (CUB) 2743.1 10 75 x 85 0% 0.02%
 Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (AZE) 2735.0 35 125 75 235 0% 0%
 Teimour Radjabov (AZE) 2738.0 50 50 110 210 0% 0%
 Dmitry Andreikin (RUS) 2717.9 20 170 10 200 0% 0%
 Rustam Kasimdzhanov (UZB) 2703.8 35 15 75 125 0% 0%

Finally, we want to revisit our old discussion of Tomashevsky as a “clutch” player who excels in events connected to the World Championship cycle, to the exclusion of others. Despite missing mate in 10 today, and only drawing against Grischuk, at 1.5/2 Tomashevsky is nevertheless off to a (way-to-early-to-be-valid) performance rating of 2933 in this event. Khanty-Mansiysk is his 29th tournament since the beginning of the year 2011 – and the fifth of those 29 that could potentially help qualify him for a Candidates Tournament. Here are all 29 of those events, sorted by performance rating:

Year Event Score Games Avg Opp Performance Rating World Championship Relevant?
2015 FIDE Grand Prix Khanty-Mansiysk 1.5 2 2740 2933 Yes
2015 FIDE Grand Prix Tbilisi 8 11 2746 2912 Yes
2011 European Club Cup 3.5 5 2688 2837 No
2013 World Cup 7.5 12 2718 2805 Yes
2011 Saratov Region Cup 7 11 2707 2802 No
2011 Aeroflot Open 6.5 9 2631 2797 No
2011 World Cup 4 6 2675 2792 Yes
2012 European Club Cup 4.5 6 2596 2789 No
2014 FIDE Grand Prix Baku 6 11 2756 2785 Yes
2015 World Team Championship 5.5 8 2644 2777 No
2012 Russian Team Championship 3.5 6 2703 2760 No
2014 Russian Championship 6 9 2623 2740 No
2014 Qatar Masters Open 6 9 2609 2726 No
2011 Russian Championship 7 11 2625 2720 No
2013 FIDE Grand Prix Paris (As Alternate) 5 11 2750 2714 No
2011 Russian Team Championship 6.5 10 2596 2706 No
2012 Aeroflot Open 5.5 9 2625 2705 No
2012 Tal Memorial 3.5 9 2781 2694 No
2012 Russia-China Match 2.5 5 2692 2692 No
2013 Russian Championship 5.5 9 2603 2683 No
2013 Russian Team Championship 3 5 2606 2678 No
2014 Russian Team Championship 3 6 2676 2676 No
2014 Gibraltar Masters 7 10 2520 2669 No
2012 World Cities Team Championship 2.5 4 2563 2650 No
2013 European Individual Champ 7 11 2542 2637 No
2013 European Team Championship 3.5 6 2566 2623 No
2014 European Individual Champ 6.5 11 2541 2606 No
2013 Macedonia Team Championship 1 2 2579 2579 No
2012 World Chess Olympiad 2.5 5 2562 2562 No

Let the absurdity of that sink in for a while. All five of his tournaments with championship implications are among his top nine overall results. For a cleaner look, here are his performance ratings by year, split based on whether the games had potential championship implications:

World Champ Cycle All Other Events
Year Games Performance Games Performance
2015 13 2920 8 2777
2014 11 2785 45 2679
2013 12 2805 44 2662
2012 0 N/A 44 2694
2011 6 2792 46 2763
TOTAL 42 2832 187 2700

Returning to the present, one other thought on Tomashevsky would be to wonder how much it might have hurt him to draw Grischuk today in a game that he probably should have won. Our model estimates that with a win today, instead of a draw, his odds of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament would have been around 79%, rather than the 68% we have him at given the actual results. Pretty costly!

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2 thoughts on “Khanty-Mansiysk Round 2 Update

  1. Thanks for providing this blog posts. Very entertaining to read. Right after each round I come here waiting for your update!

    Like

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