In a critical crash among the most likely Candidates, Fabiano Caruana defeated Evgeny Tomashevsky and reasserted himself as the most likely player to earn one of the two open spots in next year’s Candidates Tournament. Caruana is now in a three-way tie for first place in this event, and is once again the second highest rated player in the world (by live ratings). These two facts combine to give him an almost one in four chance of winning this final leg of the Grand Prix outright, which is of course far more success than he even needs to assure himself a top two finish in the overall standings.
Here are our updated projections for this event:
|Player||K-M EV||Odds of Clear 1st||(Pre-Event Odds)|
|Fabiano Caruana (ITA)||119||24%||17%|
|Hikaru Nakamura (USA)||94||10%||14%|
|Peter Svidler (RUS)||89||8%||2%|
|Leinier Dominguez (CUB)||87||7%||2%|
|Alexander Grischuk (RUS)||84||6%||11%|
|Sergey Karjakin (RUS)||72||4%||5%|
|Evgeny Tomashevsky (RUS)||68||3%||3%|
|Boris Gelfand (ISR)||63||2%||3%|
|Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (FRA)||61||2%||3%|
|Anish Giri (NED)||60||2%||7%|
|Dmitry Jakovenko (RUS)||45||1%||3%|
|Baadur Jobava (GEO)||28||0.2%||1%|
As for the second berth in the Candidates Tournament, there is far more uncertainty. With today’s loss, Tomashevsky fell back into the middle of the pack at 1.5/3, along with Nakamura and four others. Right now it looks likely that the ultimate top two finishers will be Caruana and one of either Nakamura or Tomashevsky, although a few other names are still alive.
Folding each player’s average expected score (“EV”) from above into the current standings, here is how we currently project the final Grand Prix standings to look – along with each player’s odds of finishing in the top two of those standings:
|Player||Baku||Tashkent||Tbilisi||Khanty-Mansiysk EV||TOTAL EV||Top-Two Odds|
|Fabiano Caruana (ITA)||155||75||119||349||82%|
|Evgeny Tomashevsky (RUS)||82||170||68||320||58%|
|Hikaru Nakamura (USA)||82||125||94||301||43%|
|Boris Gelfand (ISR)||155||15||63||233||6%|
|Sergey Karjakin (RUS)||82||75||72||229||6%|
|Dmitry Jakovenko (RUS)||30||140||45||215||2%|
|Alexander Grischuk (RUS)||82||40||84||206||2%|
|Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (FRA)||75||40||61||176||0.3%|
|Peter Svidler (RUS)||82||20||89||191||0.3%|
|Anish Giri (NED)||40||75||60||175||0.2%|
|Baadur Jobava (GEO)||75||40||28||143||0.03%|
|Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (AZE)||35||125||75||235||0%|
|Dmitry Andreikin (RUS)||20||170||10||200||0%|
|Teimour Radjabov (AZE)||50||50||110||210||0%|
|Rustam Kasimdzhanov (UZB)||35||15||75||125||0%|
|Leinier Dominguez (CUB)||10||75||87||172||0%|
Key Games In Round 4:
Caruana has established himself as the commanding leader, but he does have to handle the black pieces tomorrow against Vachiere-Lagrave. Our model gives MVL an 18% chance of winning that game, which would make the race for the top more competitive.
Nakamura also has black, against co-leader Dominguez who has looked strong through the first three rounds. As you can see in our predictions above, we do model Nakamura as a favorite to eventually outpace the lower rated Tomashevsky in this event (although by slightly less than he needs to, on average, to pass him in the final standings), but he’ll probably need to win some games at some point to live up to that projection. So far he’s drawn his first three. Our model does give him a 23% chance to get his first win here, despite having black.
Tomashevsky is the only one of the major contenders to wield white tomorrow, against Jakovenko. We give him a 29% chance of winning that game, and bouncing back from today’s setback.