After a crushing loss on time (in a won position) yesterday, the question of round 2 was how Magnus Carlsen would respond. The answer was: poorly. Fabiano Caruana played a fabulous game and defeated the world champion in a Berlin Endgame, dropping the pre-tournament favorite to a shocking 0/2 score and last place in the standings!
With the victory, Caruana is now the favorite to win the event, while Carlsen now projects to win less than one time in twenty! Here are each player’s odds, along with how they’ve shifted each round:
|Player||Pre-Event Odds||Odds After Rd 1||Odds After Rd 2|
|Jon Ludvig Hammer||0.2%||0.1%||0.04%|
Even with this second loss, Carlsen still remains the favorite to win the three-event Grand Chess Tour. While his odds of winning the first leg are low, he still has a strong chance to rebound for solid points, and of course remains the favorite in the remaining two legs. Here is each player’s updated odds of winning the tour:
|Player||Pre-Norway||After Rd 1||After Rd 2|
Tomorrow sees Carlsen with the white pieces against Anish Giri, one of five players currently tied for first place with 1.5/2 points. The other four leaders face each other in two critical games, with Nakamura taking white against Caruana while Vachier-Lagrave gets white against Topalov. Will there be a decisive result in either game, allowing the winner to pull further ahead of the pack one third of the way through the tournament? Or will both games be drawn, perhaps allowing someone in the bottom half of the standings to make up ground? We shall see!