Norway Chess Round 3 Updated Odds

Here is each player’s updated chances of winning Norway Chess 2015, accounting for results in round 3, according to our simulation model:

Player Norway Odds
Veselin Topalov 39.0%
Hikaru Nakamura 30.7%
Anish Giri 14.2%
Fabiano Caruana 7.4%
Viswanathan Anand 5.3%
Magnus Carlsen 1.6%
Alexander Grischuk 0.8%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.6%
Levon Aronian 0.4%
Jon Ludvig Hammer 0.0%

As expected, the two players tied for the lead, who are also currently rated #2 and #3 in the world (by live ratings), are the most likely champions. Topalov’s edge is largely due to which Norwegian he has already faced. He infamously beat Carlsen in round 1, while Nakamura still has a game scheduled against the world champion, who remains the most dangerous player in the field by the model’s rating-based estimations, despite his poor start and current last-place standing. Meanwhile Nakamura has already played (and beaten) Hammer, while Topalov’s projections still benefit from a future game against the lowest rated player in the field.

Next: here is a graph of how those odds have fluctuated after each round (note that the graph is to scale, showing how much chess is left in the tournament with white-space, “round 10” refers to potential tie-breaks while “round 0” refers to the blitz tournament that determined pairings):


As for odds in the overall three-event Grand Chess Tour, here is each player’s updated chances of winning the overall Tour crown:

Player Win Odds
Magnus Carlsen 28.1%
Hikaru Nakamura 23.4%
Veselin Topalov 21.1%
Fabiano Caruana 9.3%
Viswanathan Anand 8.1%
Anish Giri 7.4%
Alexander Grischuk 1.4%
Levon Aronian 0.9%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 0.2%

Despite his tepid start in Norway, Carlsen remains the favorite. He does have two more tournaments to make up ground, and still has plenty of time to at least partially salvage his spot in the standings for this first leg as well. After all we are only one-third of the way into the first of three tournaments. That said, he is the favorite by a much more modest margin than he was three days ago. This graph shows his free-fall well (again, note the large amount of white-space, indicating how much more chess there is left to play between today and the eventual determination of a winner):



One thought on “Norway Chess Round 3 Updated Odds

  1. Not only is his chance to win the tournament abyssal, but the world champion and clearly the highest rated player Magnus Carlsen will even find it very difficult just to make 50% grade (TPR ±0) ! !

    The winner of this competition can only come from amongst the four leading scorers (Topalov / Nakamura / Giri / Vishy). I look forward to Magnus-Naka match … and IFFY finally Naka hacks a point over his long tormentor, then Naka can win Norway Chess.


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