Sinquefield Cup Round 1 Pairings

Yesterday we published our preview of the Sinquefield Cup, but had to hedge our bets a little on each player’s exact odds because we did not yet know the actual pairings. Tonight, at the opening ceremonies, lots were drawn and those pairings were determined! Here are the updated results of our model’s estimations of each player’s odds of winning, now calculated based on the exact pairings (for the Grand Chess Tour odds, we are currently assuming random lots for the pairings in London):

Player Sinquefield Odds Grand Chess Tour Odds
Magnus Carlsen 29.3% 13.0%
Hikaru Nakamura 13.7% 13.0%
Veselin Topalov 12.0% 42.2%
Viswanathan Anand 11.7% 21.3%
Fabiano Caruana 9.8% 5.3%
Anish Giri 8.4% 4.5%
Wesley So 5.2% 0.0%
Levon Aronian 4.1% 0.2%
Alexander Grischuk 3.9% 0.3%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 1.9% 0.2%

Notable round 1 pairings include Carlsen vs. Topalov and Nakamura vs. Anand. Yes, that’s right, the four highest rated players in the world are facing each other! Oh, and the other three games aren’t too shabby either 😉

The full Rd 1 pairings:

Carlsen – Topalov

Nakamura – Anand

Aronian – Caruana

Giri – Grischuk

So – Vachier-Lagrave

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