Sinquefield Recap: Rd 3

Round three of the Sinquefield Cup again saw numerous exciting games, and this time there were two decisive results. Magnus Carlsen took a big swipe at any rumors of his demise by winning his second consecutive game, this time against Vachier-Lagrave. The win brought Carlsen into a tie for second place, just half a point behind the leader Topalov who drew his own contest with Anand. Topalov, with his lead, remains the most likely Sinquefield victor (and a huge favorite in the Grand Chess Tour), but Carlsen has slid his way right back into second place in both hunts.

Also victorious today was Wesley So, who got himself back up to an even score by picking on Grischuk. The remaining games were draws (Aronian-Giri and Nakamura-Caruana). After all of these results, here are our model’s updated estimations of each player’s odds of winning the Sinquefield Cup, and of finishing first in the overall Grand Chess Tour standings:

Player Sinquefield Odds GCT Odds
Veselin Topalov 47.5% 80.8%
Magnus Carlsen 26.9% 7.8%
Anish Giri 9.4% 3.6%
Levon Aronian 6.1% 0.2%
Hikaru Nakamura 6.0% 5.4%
Wesley So 1.8% 0.0%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 1.1% 0.1%
Alexander Grischuk 0.5% 0.0%
Viswanathan Anand 0.3% 1.9%
Fabiano Caruana 0.3% 0.2%

How have those odds shifted over the three rounds of play so far? Here is a graph of each player’s odds of winning the Sinquefield Cup, on a round by round basis (note that with six of nine rounds left to play, there’s a lot of white space still for things to change!):


And here are each player’s odds of winning the Grand Chess Tour, starting from before Norway Chess, through the 12 rounds of play so far (and with 15 rounds of white space left, since London is still upcoming):



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