Not much change here, with just one decisive game. Aronian defeated So, and moved into a tie for first place, improving his odds of winning the Sinquefield Cup, but overall this chart still looks quite similar to yesterday:
|Player||Sinquefield Odds||Grand Chess Tour Odds|
Why is Aronian still in third place, in terms of odds of winning the tournament, when he’s tied for the lead? Part of it is of course the fact that his rating is lower than other players near the top. There’s another component in play too though: schedule. Aronian’s 3/4 start is less impressive than Topalov’s because of who they played when. Topalov played the top three seeds (other than himself) in the first three rounds, while Aronian has not yet played any of them. In fact Levon has to survive a terrifying gauntlet in the final four rounds if he wants to hold onto his lead: Carlsen, Nakamura, Anand, and then Topalov. This remaining schedule, as much as his own rating, contributes to a lower expected score through the remaining rounds, and is a big part of the reason why Carlsen is considered more likely than him to win the event, despite having an extra half point deficit to overcome.