Sinquefield Odds Update: Rd 7

We didn’t manage to post an update of the odds after round 6, but not much changed. Carlsen remained around 53% to win the Sinquefield Cup, Aronian remained around 17% to win. Nakamura’s win and Topalov’s loss caused them to swap places, with Nakamura improving to 15% from 4%, and taking over as the third most likely victor, and Topalov dropping to just 3% from almost 17% before the round. It was just minor shuffling though, for the most part little changed in round 6.

Not so in round 7, where there was a drastic shakeup at the top! Carlsen and Aronian entered the round tied, and the odds heavily favored Carlsen going forward by virtue of his much higher rating, but instead round 7 shocked the standings when Carlsen lost to Grischuk and Aronian defeated Nakamura in the same day. Suddenly Aronian emerged with a full point lead and just two rounds left to play, making him now a huge favorite to win the event!

Player Sinquefield Odds
Levon Aronian 72.8%
Magnus Carlsen 8.1%
Anish Giri 6.8%
Alexander Grischuk 5.5%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 4.3%
Veselin Topalov 1.9%
Hikaru Nakamura 0.7%
Viswanathan Anand 0.0%
Fabiano Caruana 0.0%
Wesley So 0.0%

As for the Grand Chess Tour, things were actually the other way around. Round 6, while somewhat uneventful for the odds of the Sinquefield Cup, had a huge impact in the GCT odds. Topalov’s loss mattered a lot there, dropping him to just 41% to win the tour, down from 63% before the round. The big gainers were Carlsen (who improved to 27% from 20% by drawing and remaining tied for the lead) and Nakamura (who improved to 19% from under 7% with his win).

However when Nakamura and Carlsen both lost in round 7, those gains were wiped away. Aronian climbed slightly higher than we’d seen, now up to a 6% chance of winning the tour title, but having finished second-to-last in Norway he remains a long shot even if he wins here in St. Louis. Here is where the full field now stands:

Player GCT Odds
Veselin Topalov 50.2%
Magnus Carlsen 13.2%
Anish Giri 11.3%
Hikaru Nakamura 10.4%
Levon Aronian 6.0%
Viswanathan Anand 5.5%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave 1.7%
Alexander Grischuk 1.3%
Fabiano Caruana 0.4%
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2 thoughts on “Sinquefield Odds Update: Rd 7

  1. It’s Levon! The cellar dweller of first leg Norway Chess, Aronian tops second leg Sinquefield 2015! This is a complete reversal of fortunes for Levon, who has nosedived in ELO from 2835 to 2765 after a year-long series of bad tournament results.

    The Grand Chess Tour, as envisioned by Kasparov, is supposed to produce a rock star in chess! The organizers has certainly the young guns in mind (Magnus, Fabiano, Anish and Wesley). They never have thought that the seniors (Topalov, Aronian) will lord it over. Should we expect Vishy, who is pretty much comfortable with London, to win the third leg?

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    • I think if the surprising results of the first two Grand Chess Tour events have taught us anything, it’s that naming any specific player and “expecting” him to win is unwise. It could be anyone that rises to the top in London, which is precisely what is making these events so much fun to follow!

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