Average Ratings

Two berths in the 2016 Candidate’s Tournament are reserved for the two highest rated players not already qualified in another manner. “Highest rated” is determined by the player’s AVERAGE rating across all 12 monthly ratings lists from 2015. Here is how the top 40 players rank at this point, keeping in mind that 4 more rating lists will be factored in before a top two is selected. Players whose names are crossed out are NOT potential ratings qualifiers, either because they already qualified in a different manner, or else because they are the defending World Champion.

Please note that not all of this year’s published ratings are shown. In order to avoid having too many columns (and an unreadable table) only selected ratings are listed. Note also that there are two columns for average rating. The column at the far left (Avg Rating So Far) looks only at published ratings already released, while the column at the right projects forward by assuming that each player’s published rating in future months will match their current live rating. So a player with lower ratings in the first few months of the year but a higher rating at the moment could be projected ahead of someone with higher early-year ratings but a lower current rating. This projected rating is what the players are sorted by.

Live ratings are updated as of 11/1/2015 (after the November rating list was published).

Please note that only one rating list remains to be published before these numbers become final, rather than projections. Topalov has a massive lead for first place (among players that haven’t qualified in another manner) and for all intents and purposes has already qualified. Second place is held by Anish Giri, who projects to finish 3.9 points ahead of third place Vladimir Kramnik.

In order to overcome this gap, Kramnik would have to gain 48 net rating points (so it would work for him to gain the points, or for Giri to lose the points, or a combination of the two) within the next four weeks. This is very unlikely, and Giri is almost certainly going to be in the Candidates Tournament as well, but if you want to keep an eye on the race, know that Kramnik’s current lead of 14 rating points (which are already being factored into the projections below) would have to grow to a lead of 62 rating points before the December list is published. Otherwise, Giri will remain the second qualifier.

Player Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Live Rating Projected Avg Rating
 Carlsen, Magnus 2862 2865 2863 2863 2876 2876 2853 2853 2853 2850 2850 2850.0 2859.5
 Topalov, Veselin 2800 2800 2798 2798 2798 2798 2816 2816 2816 2813 2803 2803.0 2804.9
 Anand, Viswanathan 2797 2797 2791 2791 2804 2804 2816 2816 2816 2803 2803 2796.0 2802.8
 Caruana, Fabiano 2820 2811 2802 2802 2803 2805 2797 2808 2808 2796 2787 2787.0 2802.2
 Nakamura, Hikaru 2776 2776 2798 2798 2799 2802 2814 2814 2814 2816 2793 2793.0 2799.4
 Giri, Anish 2784 2797 2790 2790 2776 2773 2791 2793 2793 2798 2778 2781.8 2787.1
 Kramnik, Vladimir 2783 2783 2783 2783 2777 2783 2783 2777 2777 2777 2796 2796.0 2783.2
 Grischuk, Alexander 2810 2810 2794 2794 2780 2781 2771 2771 2771 2774 2750 2750.0 2779.7
 So, Wesley 2762 2788 2788 2788 2778 2778 2780 2779 2773 2760 2767 2774.8 2776.3
 Aronian, Levon 2797 2777 2770 2770 2776 2780 2765 2765 2765 2784 2781 2781.0 2775.9
 Ding, Liren 2732 2755 2755 2751 2757 2749 2749 2770 2782 2782 2781 2776.4 2761.6
 Karjakin, Sergey 2760 2760 2757 2757 2753 2753 2753 2753 2762 2762 2766 2766.0 2758.5
 Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2757 2775 2765 2762 2754 2723 2731 2731 2744 2758 2765 2765.0 2752.5
 Jakovenko, Dmitry 2733 2733 2742 2744 2738 2759 2757 2759 2748 2748 2735 2735.0 2744.3
 Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar 2759 2759 2756 2754 2735 2735 2735 2735 2736 2736 2743 2743.0 2743.8
 Gelfand, Boris 2747 2747 2747 2747 2744 2751 2751 2741 2741 2741 2731 2731.0 2743.3
 Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2716 2716 2745 2745 2749 2745 2745 2747 2758 2758 2743 2743.0 2742.5
 Li, Chao b 2728 2728 2721 2730 2748 2748 2748 2748 2756 2750 2750 2750.0 2742.1
 Adams, Michael 2738 2738 2745 2746 2740 2740 2740 2740 2742 2742 2744 2744.0 2741.6
 Wojtaszek, Radoslaw 2744 2734 2737 2738 2746 2749 2733 2733 2741 2734 2748 2748.0 2740.4
 Radjabov, Teimour 2734 2731 2738 2738 2738 2738 2738 2738 2738 2738 2739 2739.0 2737.3
 Svidler, Peter 2739 2739 2729 2734 2734 2740 2740 2739 2727 2727 2745 2745.0 2736.5
 Navara, David 2729 2735 2736 2744 2751 2751 2724 2724 2728 2734 2730 2726.2 2734.4
 Harikrishna, P. 2723 2723 2729 2731 2733 2733 2733 2740 2737 2737 2743 2743.0 2733.8
 Dominguez Perez, Leinier 2726 2726 2729 2729 2734 2746 2736 2736 2732 2732 2732 2732.0 2732.5
 Vitiugov, Nikita 2735 2735 2739 2736 2736 2734 2734 2719 2725 2725 2724 2724.0 2730.5
 Eljanov, Pavel 2727 2727 2727 2733 2718 2718 2723 2723 2717 2717 2753 2756.6 2728.3
 Ivanchuk, Vassily 2715 2731 2731 2731 2733 2733 2728 2726 2726 2726 2720 2720.0 2726.7
 Andreikin, Dmitry 2737 2737 2723 2723 2723 2718 2723 2720 2720 2720 2732 2732.0 2725.7
 Yu, Yangyi 2724 2724 2724 2724 2723 2715 2736 2726 2721 2721 2734 2736.0 2725.7
 Wang, Yue 2726 2726 2726 2726 2724 2726 2716 2721 2724 2724 2729 2723.9 2724.3
 Wei, Yi 2675 2695 2706 2703 2718 2721 2724 2725 2734 2734 2737 2730.4 2716.9
 Nepomniachtchi, Ian 2714 2714 2714 2716 2728 2720 2709 2705 2705 2705 2705 2705.0 2711.7
 Leko, Peter 2713 2713 2713 2713 2714 2714 2714 2714 2707 2707 2708 2708.0 2711.5
 Ponomariov, Ruslan 2713 2713 2713 2714 2711 2711 2711 2711 2710 2710 2710 2710.0 2711.4
 Fressinet, Laurent 2706 2706 2707 2712 2712 2720 2707 2710 2702 2702 2712 2712.0 2709.0
 Wang, Hao 2713 2713 2713 2713 2710 2704 2705 2705 2712 2712 2700 2706.6 2708.9
 Morozevich, Alexander 2711 2711 2711 2711 2711 2711 2711 2711 2711 2711 2695 2695.0 2708.3
 Kasimdzhanov, Rustam 2705 2705 2712 2712 2715 2704 2704 2704 2704 2704 2702 2702.0 2706.1
 Ni, Hua 2689 2704 2704 2704 2701 2701 2703 2713 2704 2704 2696 2692.9 2701.3

13 thoughts on “Average Ratings

  1. Why is Giri before Anand in this list (2790.5 vs. 2797)? Is that a mistake or is there any additional rule to be considered?

    Thank you very much for the great blog, this is amazing work!

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  2. Looks like that’s a mistake, I don’t know how the lower number got sorted to higher (although it’s a moot point since Anand’s rating is irrelevant since he’s already qualified for the Candidates.)

    I also just now realized I forgot to update this page with the March ratings! That will be coming soon!

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  3. Lots of interesting and insightful work put down here (your site in general, I mean) – thanks a lot for your efforts!

    This page is especially interesting to follow, as there are quite many rating contenders now. I seem to remember a time when those qualified by rating would be Kramnik and Aronian, dot.

    You might want to adjust your table, though – or the css. As it is, both Chromium and Firefox is hiding the rightmost part of it under your “Follow me on Twitter” box.

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  4. great work !!
    just two small remarks:
    1) Looks rather like “top 40” then “top 50”
    2) “10 more rating lists will be factored in” – guess this was in March, now you have 5 months in, so it should be 7 more Rating lists, or ?

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  5. “Average FIDE Rating List of the 12 monthly lists starting from 1st January 2015 to 1st December 2015” – from the tournament regulations. That means, that we have by now 9 monthly ratings already, and the last one will be on December 1st, and NOT on December 31st… I think you have taken it differently?

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    • That’s exactly how I’ve taken it. The last one is the December list, which is the list published on December 1st, so the last meaningful games are played in November.

      Perhaps I didn’t explain clearly though? Is there a phrase on my page that suggests I was interpreting it differently that I ought to edit for clarity?

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      • the second paragraph starts with “Please note that not all 8 of this year’s published ratings are shown.”, should be NINE… I think

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      • Ah, yes, nice catch. I added that little bit of language when I did my update for the August rating list, and when I then did my September update I forgot to change 8 to 9. I have removed the number entirely so it just says that “not all of this year’s” and will remain true as more lists come out, so I don’t have to continually edit it, and more importantly don’t forget to do so again.

        Thank you for spotting that!

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  6. Could you update the table and give an outlook on whether Kramnik has any chance to pass Giri on the race to the candidates?

    Super excited about your website!

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    • Calculating everything now. Kramnik would need to gain 48 net rating points to pass Giri. Those could be from Kramnik gaining, or from Giri losing, points, but they would have to be in games not yet played, and games completed before the end of this month (in order to be included in the December rating list).

      I’m not sure Kramnik is actually even scheduled to play any games in that time frame, so Giri pretty much has it locked up unless he has the biggest collapse imaginable in the European Team Championships. Really I can’t imagine him losing 48 points in 9 games. He’d probably have to lose all 9 games, maybe 7-8 losses with 1-2 draws if he plays a couple lower rated players along the way.

      And most likely if he actually did start 0/5 or something, he’d probably withdraw and not play the last few rounds, while he still held a lead. So Kramnik probably doesn’t have any real chance, no.

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