Two berths in the 2016 Candidate’s Tournament are reserved for the two highest rated players not already qualified in another manner. “Highest rated” is determined by the player’s AVERAGE rating across all 12 monthly ratings lists from 2015. Here is how the top 40 players rank at this point, keeping in mind that 4 more rating lists will be factored in before a top two is selected. Players whose names are crossed out are NOT potential ratings qualifiers, either because they already qualified in a different manner, or else because they are the defending World Champion.
Please note that not all of this year’s published ratings are shown. In order to avoid having too many columns (and an unreadable table) only selected ratings are listed. Note also that there are two columns for average rating. The column at the far left (Avg Rating So Far) looks only at published ratings already released, while the column at the right projects forward by assuming that each player’s published rating in future months will match their current live rating. So a player with lower ratings in the first few months of the year but a higher rating at the moment could be projected ahead of someone with higher early-year ratings but a lower current rating. This projected rating is what the players are sorted by.
Live ratings are updated as of 11/1/2015 (after the November rating list was published).
Please note that only one rating list remains to be published before these numbers become final, rather than projections. Topalov has a massive lead for first place (among players that haven’t qualified in another manner) and for all intents and purposes has already qualified. Second place is held by Anish Giri, who projects to finish 3.9 points ahead of third place Vladimir Kramnik.
In order to overcome this gap, Kramnik would have to gain 48 net rating points (so it would work for him to gain the points, or for Giri to lose the points, or a combination of the two) within the next four weeks. This is very unlikely, and Giri is almost certainly going to be in the Candidates Tournament as well, but if you want to keep an eye on the race, know that Kramnik’s current lead of 14 rating points (which are already being factored into the projections below) would have to grow to a lead of 62 rating points before the December list is published. Otherwise, Giri will remain the second qualifier.
Player | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Live Rating | Projected Avg Rating |
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Topalov, Veselin | 2800 | 2800 | 2798 | 2798 | 2798 | 2798 | 2816 | 2816 | 2816 | 2813 | 2803 | 2803.0 | 2804.9 |
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Giri, Anish | 2784 | 2797 | 2790 | 2790 | 2776 | 2773 | 2791 | 2793 | 2793 | 2798 | 2778 | 2781.8 | 2787.1 |
Kramnik, Vladimir | 2783 | 2783 | 2783 | 2783 | 2777 | 2783 | 2783 | 2777 | 2777 | 2777 | 2796 | 2796.0 | 2783.2 |
Grischuk, Alexander | 2810 | 2810 | 2794 | 2794 | 2780 | 2781 | 2771 | 2771 | 2771 | 2774 | 2750 | 2750.0 | 2779.7 |
So, Wesley | 2762 | 2788 | 2788 | 2788 | 2778 | 2778 | 2780 | 2779 | 2773 | 2760 | 2767 | 2774.8 | 2776.3 |
Aronian, Levon | 2797 | 2777 | 2770 | 2770 | 2776 | 2780 | 2765 | 2765 | 2765 | 2784 | 2781 | 2781.0 | 2775.9 |
Ding, Liren | 2732 | 2755 | 2755 | 2751 | 2757 | 2749 | 2749 | 2770 | 2782 | 2782 | 2781 | 2776.4 | 2761.6 |
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Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime | 2757 | 2775 | 2765 | 2762 | 2754 | 2723 | 2731 | 2731 | 2744 | 2758 | 2765 | 2765.0 | 2752.5 |
Jakovenko, Dmitry | 2733 | 2733 | 2742 | 2744 | 2738 | 2759 | 2757 | 2759 | 2748 | 2748 | 2735 | 2735.0 | 2744.3 |
Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar | 2759 | 2759 | 2756 | 2754 | 2735 | 2735 | 2735 | 2735 | 2736 | 2736 | 2743 | 2743.0 | 2743.8 |
Gelfand, Boris | 2747 | 2747 | 2747 | 2747 | 2744 | 2751 | 2751 | 2741 | 2741 | 2741 | 2731 | 2731.0 | 2743.3 |
Tomashevsky, Evgeny | 2716 | 2716 | 2745 | 2745 | 2749 | 2745 | 2745 | 2747 | 2758 | 2758 | 2743 | 2743.0 | 2742.5 |
Li, Chao b | 2728 | 2728 | 2721 | 2730 | 2748 | 2748 | 2748 | 2748 | 2756 | 2750 | 2750 | 2750.0 | 2742.1 |
Adams, Michael | 2738 | 2738 | 2745 | 2746 | 2740 | 2740 | 2740 | 2740 | 2742 | 2742 | 2744 | 2744.0 | 2741.6 |
Wojtaszek, Radoslaw | 2744 | 2734 | 2737 | 2738 | 2746 | 2749 | 2733 | 2733 | 2741 | 2734 | 2748 | 2748.0 | 2740.4 |
Radjabov, Teimour | 2734 | 2731 | 2738 | 2738 | 2738 | 2738 | 2738 | 2738 | 2738 | 2738 | 2739 | 2739.0 | 2737.3 |
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Navara, David | 2729 | 2735 | 2736 | 2744 | 2751 | 2751 | 2724 | 2724 | 2728 | 2734 | 2730 | 2726.2 | 2734.4 |
Harikrishna, P. | 2723 | 2723 | 2729 | 2731 | 2733 | 2733 | 2733 | 2740 | 2737 | 2737 | 2743 | 2743.0 | 2733.8 |
Dominguez Perez, Leinier | 2726 | 2726 | 2729 | 2729 | 2734 | 2746 | 2736 | 2736 | 2732 | 2732 | 2732 | 2732.0 | 2732.5 |
Vitiugov, Nikita | 2735 | 2735 | 2739 | 2736 | 2736 | 2734 | 2734 | 2719 | 2725 | 2725 | 2724 | 2724.0 | 2730.5 |
Eljanov, Pavel | 2727 | 2727 | 2727 | 2733 | 2718 | 2718 | 2723 | 2723 | 2717 | 2717 | 2753 | 2756.6 | 2728.3 |
Ivanchuk, Vassily | 2715 | 2731 | 2731 | 2731 | 2733 | 2733 | 2728 | 2726 | 2726 | 2726 | 2720 | 2720.0 | 2726.7 |
Andreikin, Dmitry | 2737 | 2737 | 2723 | 2723 | 2723 | 2718 | 2723 | 2720 | 2720 | 2720 | 2732 | 2732.0 | 2725.7 |
Yu, Yangyi | 2724 | 2724 | 2724 | 2724 | 2723 | 2715 | 2736 | 2726 | 2721 | 2721 | 2734 | 2736.0 | 2725.7 |
Wang, Yue | 2726 | 2726 | 2726 | 2726 | 2724 | 2726 | 2716 | 2721 | 2724 | 2724 | 2729 | 2723.9 | 2724.3 |
Wei, Yi | 2675 | 2695 | 2706 | 2703 | 2718 | 2721 | 2724 | 2725 | 2734 | 2734 | 2737 | 2730.4 | 2716.9 |
Nepomniachtchi, Ian | 2714 | 2714 | 2714 | 2716 | 2728 | 2720 | 2709 | 2705 | 2705 | 2705 | 2705 | 2705.0 | 2711.7 |
Leko, Peter | 2713 | 2713 | 2713 | 2713 | 2714 | 2714 | 2714 | 2714 | 2707 | 2707 | 2708 | 2708.0 | 2711.5 |
Ponomariov, Ruslan | 2713 | 2713 | 2713 | 2714 | 2711 | 2711 | 2711 | 2711 | 2710 | 2710 | 2710 | 2710.0 | 2711.4 |
Fressinet, Laurent | 2706 | 2706 | 2707 | 2712 | 2712 | 2720 | 2707 | 2710 | 2702 | 2702 | 2712 | 2712.0 | 2709.0 |
Wang, Hao | 2713 | 2713 | 2713 | 2713 | 2710 | 2704 | 2705 | 2705 | 2712 | 2712 | 2700 | 2706.6 | 2708.9 |
Morozevich, Alexander | 2711 | 2711 | 2711 | 2711 | 2711 | 2711 | 2711 | 2711 | 2711 | 2711 | 2695 | 2695.0 | 2708.3 |
Kasimdzhanov, Rustam | 2705 | 2705 | 2712 | 2712 | 2715 | 2704 | 2704 | 2704 | 2704 | 2704 | 2702 | 2702.0 | 2706.1 |
Ni, Hua | 2689 | 2704 | 2704 | 2704 | 2701 | 2701 | 2703 | 2713 | 2704 | 2704 | 2696 | 2692.9 | 2701.3 |
Why is Giri before Anand in this list (2790.5 vs. 2797)? Is that a mistake or is there any additional rule to be considered?
Thank you very much for the great blog, this is amazing work!
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Looks like that’s a mistake, I don’t know how the lower number got sorted to higher (although it’s a moot point since Anand’s rating is irrelevant since he’s already qualified for the Candidates.)
I also just now realized I forgot to update this page with the March ratings! That will be coming soon!
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Lots of interesting and insightful work put down here (your site in general, I mean) – thanks a lot for your efforts!
This page is especially interesting to follow, as there are quite many rating contenders now. I seem to remember a time when those qualified by rating would be Kramnik and Aronian, dot.
You might want to adjust your table, though – or the css. As it is, both Chromium and Firefox is hiding the rightmost part of it under your “Follow me on Twitter” box.
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great work !!
just two small remarks:
1) Looks rather like “top 40” then “top 50”
2) “10 more rating lists will be factored in” – guess this was in March, now you have 5 months in, so it should be 7 more Rating lists, or ?
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I trimmed it to top 40 on my most recent update, and apparently have forgotten to change the header text the past several times I’ve updated it! Thanks for the catch!
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[…] Average Ratings […]
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“Average FIDE Rating List of the 12 monthly lists starting from 1st January 2015 to 1st December 2015” – from the tournament regulations. That means, that we have by now 9 monthly ratings already, and the last one will be on December 1st, and NOT on December 31st… I think you have taken it differently?
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That’s exactly how I’ve taken it. The last one is the December list, which is the list published on December 1st, so the last meaningful games are played in November.
Perhaps I didn’t explain clearly though? Is there a phrase on my page that suggests I was interpreting it differently that I ought to edit for clarity?
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the second paragraph starts with “Please note that not all 8 of this year’s published ratings are shown.”, should be NINE… I think
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Ah, yes, nice catch. I added that little bit of language when I did my update for the August rating list, and when I then did my September update I forgot to change 8 to 9. I have removed the number entirely so it just says that “not all of this year’s” and will remain true as more lists come out, so I don’t have to continually edit it, and more importantly don’t forget to do so again.
Thank you for spotting that!
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no problem – you have done great work, meanwhile!
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Could you update the table and give an outlook on whether Kramnik has any chance to pass Giri on the race to the candidates?
Super excited about your website!
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Calculating everything now. Kramnik would need to gain 48 net rating points to pass Giri. Those could be from Kramnik gaining, or from Giri losing, points, but they would have to be in games not yet played, and games completed before the end of this month (in order to be included in the December rating list).
I’m not sure Kramnik is actually even scheduled to play any games in that time frame, so Giri pretty much has it locked up unless he has the biggest collapse imaginable in the European Team Championships. Really I can’t imagine him losing 48 points in 9 games. He’d probably have to lose all 9 games, maybe 7-8 losses with 1-2 draws if he plays a couple lower rated players along the way.
And most likely if he actually did start 0/5 or something, he’d probably withdraw and not play the last few rounds, while he still held a lead. So Kramnik probably doesn’t have any real chance, no.
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