Over the next two weeks the “Wimbledon of Chess” – the elite annual tournament at Wijk aan Zee in The Netherlands – will be contested. New faces join familiar stars as many of the top players in the world seek the title but will have to fend off underdogs to do so.
We will be providing full coverage of the tournament with daily updates, driven by our model that predicts each player’s chances of winning as the event progresses and picks out which games in each round might most strongly impact the ultimate results. We hope that our analysis can offer a lens through which to follow the event with a better understanding of what’s at stake in individual dramatic moments – hopefully increasing your ability to enjoy that drama as a fan.
The format of the tournament is a 14-player Round Robin, meaning each player faces each other player once over the course of 13 rounds. If 13 rounds aren’t enough to produce one single clear winner, a new tiebreak format guarantees that all players tied for first will qualify for a playoff with a variable structure that depends on the number of players involved.
The field:
To begin with, let’s take a look at all 14 competitors, and our model’s calculations of their chances to win the tournament as well as where they might land, on average, in the final standings:
| Name | Rating | Win% | Avg Place |
| Carlsen, Magnus | 2865.0 | 53.3% | 2.2 |
| Caruana, Fabiano | 2792.0 | 13.8% | 4.5 |
| Giri, Anish | 2772.0 | 7.6% | 5.5 |
| Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar | 2767.0 | 5.6% | 6.1 |
| Rapport, Richard | 2763.0 | 5.0% | 6.3 |
| Duda, Jan-Krzysztof | 2760.0 | 5.6% | 6.1 |
| Karjakin, Sergey | 2743.0 | 2.7% | 7.3 |
| Vidit, Santosh Gujrathi | 2727.0 | 1.8% | 7.9 |
| Dubov, Daniil | 2720.0 | 1.5% | 8.2 |
| Esipenko, Andrey | 2714.0 | 1.2% | 8.6 |
| Shankland, Sam | 2708.0 | 0.8% | 9.2 |
| Van Foreest, Jorden | 2702.0 | 0.8% | 9.2 |
| Grandelius, Nils | 2672.0 | 0.2% | 10.9 |
| Praggnanandhaa, R | 2612.0 | 0.01% | 12.9 |
Now let’s take a closer look at a few of the favorites and a couple players who have extra narratives in play beyond the simple question of “will they win this tournament”.
Magnus Carlsen – 53.3% chance to win
The world champion is fresh off a successful title defense, retaining the world title he has held since 2013. He has since suggested that he may be growing bored with the same type of achievements he’s managed before, such as winning tournaments or even – depending on the next challenger – world championship matches. And speaking of things he’s done before, Carlsen has won this tournament seven times in his career. Instead of such redundant pursuits he has declared a new goal: setting a nearly inconceivable ratings record by becoming the first player ever rated over 2900.
It is perhaps notable that mathematically speaking he could achieve that goal right here. He would have almost no margin for error, it would take either 12 wins and one draw, or a perfect 13 wins, to get there. Realistically speaking this is essentially impossible; draws are simply too common in chess. The highest score we are aware of in this event was 10/13. But for those who live by the slogan “So you’re saying there’s a chance” our model shows higher scores are at least theoretically possible and does offer roughly a 0.04% chance (or about 2500 to 1) that Carlsen could indeed score 12.5 or 13 points and shoot past the 2900 mark.
For more realistic considerations, Carlsen could make progress towards his rating goal with a strong performance here. He has an 11% chance of scoring 10/13 (almost certainly winning in the process) improve his rating to 2876, and also has roughly a 10% chance of scoring even higher and pushing his rating somewhere over 2880. Of course that being said, he also runs the risk of losing rating points – perhaps even without particularly bad results given the extraordinary expectations the rating formula places on him. Last year’s winner scored 8.5/13 and it’s entirely possible that Magnus could win this year with the same score. If he did, he would lose four rating points.
It will be very interesting to see what form Magnus shows up in. If he wants to make meaningful progress in improving his already stratospheric rating, he will have to play nearly to perfection. If he does so the 53% chance our model gives him of winning the event may look like we underestimated him by the end. When Magnus plays in his top form he can make the results look like they were inevitable after the fact. But if we don’t see that version of Magnus we can still expect him to contend for first place, and even if he’s “struggling” by his standards, he should be in it to the end.
Fabiano Caruana – 13.8% chance to win
Fabi had some struggles in 2021, losing 31 rating points and dropping from 2nd to 4th in the world rankings. However he closed the year with a second place finish at the FIDE Grand Swiss tournament, clinching a berth in the Candidates Tournament coming up next June. Caruana won this tournament before, in 2020, and may be motivated to build upon his success from last November and become a repeat champion here – and perhaps to reclaim his #2 spot in the world ranking along the way, if he does so with a strong enough performance. It’s a new year and we’ll see if that brings a new Fabi with it.
Anish Giri – 7.6% chance to win
The local hero and third highest rated player in the field, Giri is ranked #7 in the world. He is a four time Dutch champion and in this particular event he has reached tiebreaks twice in recent years, losing to Carlsen in 2018 and to van Foreest last year, but has never won first place. Undoubtedly he would love to finally take home a title at Tata Steel.
Jorden van Foreest – 0.8% chance to win
We now deviate from going in order by win chances to highlight the other Dutch player in the field – and the defending champion. By rating, which drives our model, Jorden is a huge underdog. Only two other players are lower rated than him. But those are actually higher chances than our model gave him before last year’s event began and he won it! Plus the year prior he also greatly overachieved his rating on the way to finishing tied for third. None of our models has never factored in any form of “home field advantage” but it seems that Jorden may indeed have such an edge at Tata Steel. We’ll see if he can overperform his rating-based expectations once again this year, and if so it will be very interesting to see if he once again contends for the title.
R Praggnanandhaa – 0.01% chance to win
The lowest rated player in the field – by a large margin – is the youngest rated player in the field as well. Our model sees essentially no chance of him seriously contending for first place, but given his young age there is reason to suspect he may be stronger than his rating indicates so the interesting question is to see whether he is competitive against the 2700 opposition he will face here and whether he can stay out of the standings basement.
It’s worth remembering that two years ago as of March 2020 Pragg, then 14 and rated 2608, was the highest rated player of all time at his age. Then he went 17 months without playing a single rated game of chess because of the Covid pandemic’s impact on the chess world. Only over the last four months has he begun playing again, and while the results so far have been a little mixed we have seen clear signs of his potential that earned him this invitation. Now we’ll find out if he is ready to live up to that potential now against elite opposition.
Round 1 Matchups:
So what’s at stake in the first round? Here are notes on all seven games, sorted from most to least important to the final standings, based on how much the players’ chances to win the event could possibly shift.
| Adjusted Odds if… | ||||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (10%) | Draw (49%) | Black wins (41%) | Importance | |
| White | Esipenko, Andrey | 1.2% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 34.2% |
| Black | Carlsen, Magnus | 53.3% | 33.1% | 47.3% | 62.5% |
Carlsen starts his journey with black against a player who handed him a shocking loss in this very event one year ago. Even with black, he is a significant favorite in the game with a 41% chance to get his revenge for last year. And with a win his odds to win the tournament would shoot even higher, but the flipside of that is that even a draw would be a little disappointing and he would no longer be favored against “the field”.
Esipenko of course isn’t likely – based just on ratings – to beat Carlsen (10% according to the model). But that didn’t stop him last year and if the 19 year old were to do it once again, he would start to become a little bit of a longshot contender himself with his odds of winning first place approaching 5%. More consequentially he would also drop Carlsen’s odds under 1 in 3 opening the race wide open right out of the gate and putting everyone else into better contention. So this game has a lot of opportunity – whichever way it goes – to set the tone for the whole event. Not just for these two players, but for the entire field.
| Adjusted Odds if… | ||||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (37%) | Draw (51%) | Black wins (12%) | Importance | |
| White | Caruana, Fabiano | 13.8% | 18.5% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 19.6% |
| Black | Karjakin, Sergey | 2.7% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 7.0% |
This duel pits two players who have both competed for world championships (both losing their matches to Carlsen) and who both had disappointing rating slides more recently. Our model is largely dismissive of Karjakin’s hopes, while Caruana is pegged as the next most likely tournament winner should Carlsen stumble. And in addition to his rating edge Caruana also has black so he’s a strong favorite in this game, but if Karjakin did manage to win he could flip the script right there and emerge from the first round with better chances than Fabi to ultimately win the tournament.
| Adjusted Odds if… | ||||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (27%) | Draw (56%) | Black wins (17%) | Importance | |
| White | Duda, Jan-Krzysztof | 5.6% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 17.3% |
| Black | Rapport, Richard | 5.0% | 1.8% | 4.8% | 10.9% |
Duda and Rapport sit in very similar places as the event begins. They’re in the top half of the field (and separated from each other by just three rating points) and have non-negligible chances to win the event in the range of one in 20, but they just don’t hold up to the favorites in our model. If this game has a decisive result either way, though, the winner will see his chances to win the tournament roughly double. That would be a good way to draw some more serious attention when we preview the next round!
| Adjusted Odds if… | ||||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (19%) | Draw (59%) | Black wins (21%) | Importance | |
| White | Dubov, Daniil | 1.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 10.5% |
| Black | Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar | 5.6% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 9.7% |
Mamedyarov is the fourth seed, and could establish himself as a serious early contender with a win here, but his rating edge is almost fully negated by the disadvantage of the black pieces, so our model sees the chances in this game as nearly equal. All three results could occur.
| Adjusted Odds if… | ||||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (56%) | Draw (40%) | Black wins (4%) | Importance | |
| White | Giri, Anish | 7.6% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 6.7% |
| Black | Praggnanandhaa, R | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
This game doesn’t grade highly in our “importance” measure because Giri is so likely to win it according to our ratings-obsessed model. Especially with white. However with those high expectations comes a downside: should Giri not win (and especially if he loses) his chances to win the tournament drop. Our model currently assumes Pragg will be a relative pushover, and that the favorites kind of have to beat him to hold their favored status. Of course as we discussed earlier Pragg may well prove far more competitive than his rating suggests. If that proves to be the case, our model will temporarily dock Giri if he doesn’t win this game, but that will even out in the long run if other top players also fail to beat the 16 year old. This is a good moment to remember that none of these round one games are grading too highly on our “importance” measure simply because no matter what happens on day one there will be 12 more rounds left! Games this early do a lot to set the stage and frame the narratives of the tournament, but they can’t be entirely decisive in the end. There’s plenty of time for further twists and turns as the tournament progresses.
| Adjusted Odds if… | ||||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (31%) | Draw (54%) | Black wins (15%) | Importance | |
| White | Vidit, Santosh Gujrathi | 1.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 4.3% |
| Black | Shankland, Sam | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.8% |
This game gives us our first look at two players who have never before competed in the top section at Tata Steel. By rating they are the #8 and #11 seeds, so our model doesn’t find this to be the most compelling game, but it’s a big opportunity for both of them and even if neither seems likely to ultimately contend for first place there are still other goals for them to pursue and both would like to start strong. If anything the idea that this is one of the least interesting games of the day (relatively speaking) is perhaps the best testament to how wonderful this tournament is, as this is a fascinating matchup and should make for great chess!
| Adjusted Odds if… | ||||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (33%) | Draw (53%) | Black wins (14%) | Importance | |
| White | Van Foreest, Jorden | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.8% |
| Black | Grandelius, Nils | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
The second and third lowest rated players start out facing each other. So in terms of who will win the tournament, our model sees little meaning here. But let us not forget that Jorden won the tournament last year when our model gave him just a 0.4% chance so it’s not quite so easy to dismiss his chances now! This game will be our first chance to see what kind of form the defending champion is in, and whether he can continue his mission from the past two years of playing well above his rating at Tata Steel.
What’s next?
We are publishing this preview just a few hours before the first games begin. As the tournament continues we will update these odds daily, and provide previews in this same format of all seven games in each upcoming round, showing how much impact each game might have on who eventually wins the tournament. Additionally we’ll track how storylines develop and offer other little tidbits as they come up. This is one of our favorite tournaments of the year and we look forward to sharing it with you!
Chess by the Numbers 