And then there were two. Coming into the sixth round Nepomniachtchi and Caruana were already in first and second place in the standings. Those leads increased when they both won their games while the other two games of the day were drawn, and now there is suddenly an extremely high chance that one of them will ultimately win the tournament. They now get a rest day to sit on their leads, and action resumes with the seventh round on June 25th. Here’s the new odds of winning the event for each player, and how those odds changed based on the round six results.
Prior to this year’s Candidates tournament, the last two players to win were Nepomniachtchi in 2020/21 and before that Caruana in 2018. Our model now puts the chances at almost 90% that one of them will repeat their success, with Nepo having the better chances as he sits alone in first place for now, and is officially the “odds-on” favorite as his chances have finally crept above 50%. So far the story of this tournament is quite simple, if we take a look at how the odds have shifted from round to round:
Nepo and Fabi each won in round one, becoming co-favorites, and have just expanded their leads. Since Nepo’s second win in round four no other player has seen their chances to win the event rise back above 10%, and now nobody has even a 5% shot except the two leaders. For the moment it looks like we will see the two duel each other for the top spot over the next eight rounds, with the rest of the field just serving as the backdrop for their battle. However with all of that said, it’s not quite definitive. Eight rounds is actually plenty of time for someone to stage a comeback theoretically, not a single player is close to being mathematically eliminated. It’s just that at this point such a comeback would require a tremendous (and unlikely) effort, and require winning multiple games. It could happen, and if it does we’ll track the comeback round by round, but for the moment the story is the two players at the top. If you’re wondering, they play each other again in round 9 and Fabi has white.
ROUND 7 PREVIEW
But for now, after the rest day there is one final game left to complete the first half of the event. It’s a double round robin, so round 7 is the final time that players will be facing an opponent who they haven’t yet seen in this tournament. Here are the four games, and how their results might affect our model’s odds.
| Adjusted Odds if… | |||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (27%) | Draw (60%) | Black wins (13%) | |
| White | Ding, Liren | 2.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Black | Firouzja, Alireza | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.2% |
When the tournament began, these two players were our model’s two most likely winners, as they came in rated #2 and #3 in the world (and of course #1 is Carlsen who awaits the winner of this tournament but isn’t playing in it). Ding is still ranked #2 but lost his first game and drew every game since, and is tied for 5th-7th place in the standings, largely eliminated from contention unless he can put together a spectacular run. Firouzja has fared even worse, losing twice an dropping to #5 in the world rankings. The teenage superprodigy sits alone in last place and now has the lowest chances in the field to win.
The simple fact is that neither of these players has much hopes to win the tournament even if they win this game, but if the game is drawn both will see their odds shift further downward just as they run out of time. An unlikely comeback for either will probably start with a win in this matchup – but of course if that happens then the loser will see themselves pushed even closer to true elimination.
| Adjusted Odds if… | |||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (20%) | Draw (66%) | Black wins (14%) | |
| White | Duda, Jan-Krzysztof | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Black | Nakamura, Hikaru | 2.9% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 7.6% |
Here we have another game between two of the “other” players who all are currently being left in the dust by the two leaders. So once again neither player has much chance to win the tournament even if they win this game, but Nakamura has a slightly larger spark of hope. He is the only player other than the leaders to win a game so far in this event (even if that win is offset in the standings by a loss) and he has the cryptic “advantage” of being an underdog in this game due to the black pieces. This isn’t an advantage in the game itself, but it does mean that if he wins it will exceed the model’s expectations by a larger amount and so lead to a larger increase to his odds.
| Adjusted Odds if… | |||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (37%) | Draw (52%) | Black wins (11%) | |
| White | Caruana, Fabiano | 35.2% | 47.6% | 29.6% | 17.0% |
| Black | Radjabov, Teimour | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
For Fabi, currently in second place, this is a game with white against the lowest rated player in the field. There is no better opportunity for him to win again and move into a tie for first (pending Nepo’s result). As we often see, when the model gives someone particularly good chances it also comes with a downside, as Fabi could lose an unusually large chunk of win equity if he “just” draws his game he’s “supposed” to win over a third of the time.
| Adjusted Odds if… | |||||
| Player | Initial Odds | White wins (19%) | Draw (67%) | Black wins (14%) | |
| White | Rapport, Richard | 4.0% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Black | Nepomniachtchi, Ian | 54.1% | 36.4% | 55.3% | 69.2% |
Nepo doesn’t particularly need another win as he already has the lead, and as holding serve with black is typically sufficient in this situation. But if he did find a way to win this game he would have an even nicer position, potentially expanding his lead or – at the very least – maintaining it even if Fabi wins too. Right now he’s the odds-on favorite but not too much better than a coinflip against the field. Another win to finish the first half of the event at +4 would really push him into even stronger territory.
There is a second consideration in this game though. Rapport has the best winning chances of the “other six” and he has the white pieces here. This is a decent opportunity for him to make things more interesting for everyone. Should he beat Nepo his own winning chances go back up to around 10%, as he closes to within half a point of Nepo in the standings, but perhaps more importantly a Nepo loss cuts his chances significantly and re-opens the door for anyone who may be hoping to catch the leader, whether that’s Rapport himself or someone else. Nepo is positioned well but has a long way to go before he could clinch anything, and this scenario shows how precarious his lead still is. If Rapport wins this game, Fabi would actually be the new tournament favorite at around 44% (pending his own round 7 result).
So if Nepo’s lead is still a little precarious, it begs the question: what if both Nepo and Fabi lost? There’s a little better than a 2% chance this might happen, and so how competitive might it make things if it did?
Without making any assumptions about the other two 7th round games, Nepo and Fabi would still be the two favorites even if they both lost, but Rapport (fresh of beating Nepo) would be right in the mix too, and the other five players would have a combined 15% chance of winning themselves (more than double their current combined chances). It speaks to how strong their current positioning is that they could lose and remain the favorites, but nevertheless their leads would be much smaller and it would make the second half of the tournament much more competitive across the board (particularly if someone like Nakamura or Ding also won, improving their chances from what’s shown in the table above.)
CONCLUSION
So far the story of this tournament has been a very simple one of dominance by two players, who now sit in first and second place. It is entirely possible that they will continue their dominance, extend their leads, and all the drama of the second half of the event will be about their race with each other for the top spot. That said there are eight rounds left, and if they start losing games – or if someone lower in the table starts a streak of wins – they aren’t totally set in stone as the top two yet. There is plenty of time for them to be caught. So take advantage of the rest day – I’ll be going to the coast – and then we’ll see what happens on Saturday. Enjoy the show!
Chess by the Numbers 